Global uncertainty boosts UK’s appeal among Chinese students
The UK stands to benefit the most from uncertainty in other major markets dampening Chinese enrolments, while Donald Trump’s impact in the US could be more “muted” than some expect, according to a new white paper by marketing and research company Sunrise International.
“With so many countries being uncertain, it seems less obvious that Chinese students will decide where to go purely based on politics,” David Weeks, Sunrise International CEO and co-author of the report told The PIE News.
“That said, if there was a ‘winner’ from the uncertainty, it would be the UK.
“If Trump doesn’t target students in the US this year, the US may also see an increase in 2026,” said Weeks.
While recruiters tend to think that policy instability in their home country is unique, five of the top 14 markets for Chinese students are currently facing uncertain policy environments, according to Weeks.
In Canada and Australia, higher education sectors have been rocked by unprecedented limits on study visas and individual provider caps. In the US, educators fear the yet untold implications of Trump’s anti-immigration directives and threats to funding.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over South Korea’s presidency – the second largest destination for Chinese students outside the ‘big four’ – and visa controversies in the Philippines, are contributing to unpredictable waters for Chinese students closer to home.
In 2024, Chinese student numbers grew in the traditional Anglophone destinations as well as emerging destinations within Asia, with both trends expected to continue in the coming year.
For Weeks, stories of Chinese students pivoting to Asia at the expense of the big four have been “overblown”, citing the enduring “prestige factor” of the UK, US, Canada and Australia, alongside market variation in Asia.
“Many Asian destinations charted 10% growth from China this year, boosted by risk-aversion during the pandemic and cost sensitivity for middle class families worried about the economy,” explained Weeks.
Asian universities did well in China last year and will probably do well in 2025, but they will reach a ceiling soon
David Weeks, Sunrise International
However, of the top 14 destinations, Asian countries hosted 25% of Chinese students compared to 62% hosted by the big four.
“Asian universities did well in China last year and will probably do well in 2025, but they will reach a ceiling soon,” said Weeks.
Since the pandemic, Chinese students have been increasingly “destination-agnostic”, applying to a wider range of universities, with less expensive destinations in Asia gaining popularity, according to the White Paper.
Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong were notable beneficiaries of this trend, with Japan charting 11% growth in Chinese enrolments since 2022/23, though limited capacity in these destinations are expected to stymie growth.
The report highlights the smaller high-growth markets of Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore where there is “room to grow”, though enrolments are likely to plateau once the top five institutions in those countries reach saturation point.
“Chinese employers will ask students about why they picked Southeast Asia, and those questions are harder to answer if a student picks a non-elite university in a non-traditional country,” said Weeks.
The character and size of China’s outbound student population will ultimately depend on the country’s economic trajectory.
Although the Chinese economy surpassed predictions and grew by 5% in 2024, “China’s economy looks better on paper than it feels on the ground,” said Weeks.
Its “most likely” slow recovery is expected to contribute to slow growth in the big four, while creating opportunities for Southeast Asia and inexpensive regional schools and community colleges in the US and UK.
China’s economy looks better on paper than it feels on the ground
David Weeks, Sunrise International
For now, cost-conscious families are keen to hear about ROI and post-graduation work salaries, particularly in the US where Chinese students can earn up to seven times more than they would at home.
Despite concerns that Trump might do away with H1B or OPT programs, sector experts hope that the president’s pro-business interests will outweigh anti-immigration policies, with the US President previously speaking out in favour of the H1B skilled worker visa.
Citing recent student surveys and data from Trump’s previous administration, the report concludes that – in the absence of any radical adverse policies – interest from Chinese students in the US is unlikely to decline.
In fact, applications from China to the US through the Common App are up 9% for the 2025-26 application cycle, offering positive early signals, the report notes.
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